Models Methods Software

Dan Hughes

Averaging Planet Earths or Averaging Planet Xs

Update January 23, 2011. I fixed the broken links.

There are several discussions floating around on the subject of comparing GCM-calculated numbers with experimental data. Climate Audit and Lucia both have several threads. There are too many threads to give links; let me know if you need a specific thread. One focus of these discussions is the ensemble-average approach that is considered to be necessary for the comparisons. The ensemble is made up of the results from the various different versions of GCMs that calculate the results. Not only are GCMs different from each other, but the suggested approach is to make perturbations in the initial conditions between the runs.

I have mentioned that the results do not reflect the effects of perturbations in only the initial conditions. Everything about the approach is different between the runs. The GCMs are based on different continuous-equation models, numerical solution methods, application procedures, run-time options, and users, and maybe other aspects. How can we be sure that the results are all appropriate for Earth?

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November 4, 2008 Posted by | Chaos and Lorenz | , , , | 3 Comments